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Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?
Paul R. Epstein
Computer models indicate that many diseases will surge as the earth’s atmosphere heats up.

Today few scientists doubt the atmosphere is warming. Most also agree that the rate of heating is accelerating and that the consequences of this temperature change could become increasingly disruptive. Even high school students can reel off some projected outcomes: the oceans will warm, and glaciers will melt, causing sea levels to rise and salt water to inundate settlements along many low-lying coasts. Meanwhile the regions suitable for farming will shift. Yet less familiar effects could be equally detrimental. Notably, computer models predict that the greenhouse effect, and other climate alterations it induces, will expand the incidence and distribution of many serious medical disorders. In some places, the number of deaths related to heat waves is projected to double by 2020. Prolonged heat can, moreover, enhance production of smog and the dispersal of allergens. Both effects have been linked to respiratory symptoms. Diseases relayed by mosquitoes — such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and several kinds of encephalitis — are among those eliciting the greatest concern as the world warms. Some models project that by the end of the 21st century, ongoing warming will have enlarged the zone of potential malaria transmission from an area containing 45 percent of the world’s population to an area containing about 60 percent. That news is bad indeed, considering that no vaccine is available and that the causative parasites are becoming resistant to standard drugs. Further, global warming will probably elevate the incidence of waterborne diseases, including cholera (a cause of severe diarrhea). The consequences of global warming may not all be bad. Very high temperatures in hot regions may reduce