Gestão de risco

UTMS Journal of Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 55-66, 2010 G. Karanovic, S. Baresa, S. Bogdan: TECHNIQUES FOR MANAGING PROJECTS RISK IN CAPITAL ...

Preliminary communication Received: 24.05.2010

TECHNIQUES FOR MANAGING PROJECTS RISK IN CAPITAL BUDGETING PROCESS
Goran Karanovic Suzana Baresa Sinisa Bogdan

University of Rijeka, Croatia 1
Abstract: The paper examines capital budgeting process and techniques of risk analysis in the process of selecting optimal project. Corporate manager in process of capital budgeting uses numerous techniques some of them are based on intuition and experience of manager, and some of them are analytic based on sensitive, scenario, decision tree and Monte Carlo method. All methods are used to determinate and to predict risk influence on the projects. Article deals with analytical techniques and real problems that can arise in capital budgeting process. Trough case study in article we analyzed risks that may emerge from different techniques. Conclusion that emerges from analyzing different methods of risk techniques is that only with right combination of these techniques corporate manager could decide correctly to choose optimal capital project. Key words: Monte Carlo, sensitive method, scenario method, decision tree, NPV, discount rate.

INTRODUCTION Capital nnvestment decision i.e. capital budgeting is process that includes series of analysis and decision making processes that have long-term impact on company. Any investment conducted for future net cash growth by company’s management, regardless investing in intangible or tangible assets we can describe as capital budgeting. Company management has obligations towards company owners to increase company wealth. In today’s uncertain and unpredictable global market, where technical, technological and economical development speed is rapidly increasing, selection of optimal process and selection of optimal project is significantly difficult. Rapid speed development of technique