PIM III

Lucro, Acumulação de Capital e Distribuição no Brasil: uma análise dos determinantes de longo prazo dos regimes de crescimento
Miguel Bruno (IPEA e FCE/UERJ)
Abstract
This paper proposes a preliminary analysis of the main tendencies of the Brazilian economic growth, being considered their determinants of long-term. In the post-liberalization period, new opportunities appeared to the country to meet again a new development path. But in spite of the price stabilization and of the favorable conditions for the external trade, the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been staying much below the historical average and from what one waits for an economy still in development. On the other hand, the improvement, in the short period, of some macroeconomics indicators has been interpreted as if it already represented the entrance of the Brazilian economy in a long period of sustainable economic growth. However, the empirical evidences still show a low propensity to invest the mean profit and the permanence of the very reduced growth rates of the productive fixed capital stock. A special emphasis is given to the capital accumulation and the notions of accumulation regime or growth regime. Three different regimes are identified between 1950 and 2006. Among the analytical results it stands out the emergency and consolidation, in the post-liberalization and post-Real period, of a finance-dominant accumulation regime, according to the taxonomy proposed by the international economic literature.
Resumo
Este trabalho propõe uma análise preliminar das principais tendências do crescimento econômico brasileiro considerando-se seus determinantes de longo prazo. No período pós-liberalização, novas oportunidades surgiram para o país reencontrar uma nova trajetória de desenvolvimento. Mas apesar da estabilidade de preços e das condições favoráveis para o comércio exterior, a performance macroeconômica brasileira tem permanecido muito abaixo da média histórica e do