Metodos quantitativos

Chapter 3

Decision Analysis

To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl

© 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to: 1. List the steps of the decision-making process 2. Describe the types of decision-making environments 3. Make decisions under uncertainty 4. Use probability values to make decisions under risk

© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

3–2

Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to: 5. Develop accurate and useful decision trees 6. Revise probabilities using Bayesian analysis 7. Use computers to solve basic decisionmaking problems 8. Understand the importance and use of utility theory in decision making

© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

3–3

Chapter Outline
3.1 Introduction 3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 3.4 Decision Making under Uncertainty 3.5 Decision Making under Risk 3.6 Decision Trees 3.7 How Probability Values Are Estimated by Bayesian Analysis 3.8 Utility Theory
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3–4

Introduction
What is involved in making a good decision? Decision theory is an analytic and systematic approach to the study of decision making A good decision is one that is based on logic, considers all available data and possible alternatives, and the quantitative approach described here

© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

3–5

The Six Steps in Decision Making
1. Clearly define the problem at hand 2. List the possible alternatives 3. Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature 4. List the payoff or profit of each combination of alternatives and outcomes 5. Select one of the mathematical decision theory models 6. Apply the model and make your decision
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3–6

Thompson Lumber Company
Step 1 – Define the problem Expand by manufacturing and