04

WORKING PAPERS
Investigação - Trabalhos em curso - nº 146, Maio 2004

Comércio Externo e Crescimento da
Economia Portuguesa no Século XX
Óscar Afonso
Álvaro Aguiar
CEMPRE – Centros de Estudos
Macroeconómicos e Previsão

FACULDADE DE ECONOMIA
UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO

www.fep.up.pt

Faculdade de Economia do Porto - R. Dr. Roberto Frias - 4200-464 - Porto - Portugal
Tel . [phone] - Fax. [phone] - http://www.fep.up.pt

Comércio Externo e Crescimento da Economia Portuguesa no Século XX §
Óscar Afonso e Álvaro Aguiar
CEMPRE*, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto [e-mail] [e-mail]

Abstract
The increasing openness to international trade during the second half of the XXth century is an inescapable feature in the development of the Portuguese economy. Despite having been hit by several crises in its Balance of Payments over the century, Portugal did not suffer, apparently, from further trade imbalances due to the increasing openness - the Balance of Trade has experienced persistent deficits since the beginning of the XIXth century, both in times of openness and closeness.
The interaction with the industrialization process is the most remarkable aspect of the structural changes in the Portuguese external trade over the century. Regarding exports, the main change occurs during the 60s, between food and non-food consumption goods. The former had initially a higher share, with Port wine dominating exports over the XIXth and most of the first half of the XXth century. Starting in the 60s, the main share is gradually captured by manufactured goods, including investment goods with increasing importance towards the end of the century. As for changes in the structure of imports, the foremost feature is the upward trend in investment goods, beginning in the end of the first half of the century. Imported from developed countries, investment goods were crucial to industrialization, not only as providers of inputs, but as a vehicle of